The Probation Service: A Fresh Start
This new report finds that, under the Sentencing Bill, the role of probation will significantly expand, with thousands more people supervised in the community as short prison sentences are curtailed. However, the probation service has been weakened by a decade of cuts and continues to operate under severe pressure.
Key Context:
Despite a recent 7 per cent increase in probation officer numbers and a welcome commitment to increase funding by £700 million by 2028/29, the service faces an estimated staffing shortfall of around 10,000 officers. Caseloads remain unmanageable, limiting probation officers’ ability to provide effective supervision, support rehabilitation and prevent reoffending.
JUSTICE’s analysis finds that shifting demand away from prisons without first addressing these structural weaknesses risks trading one crisis for another.
Key findings
The report highlights several urgent challenges:
- The probation service is already overstretched, with high caseloads undermining effective supervision and rehabilitation.
- Planned sentencing reforms will significantly increase demand on probation without guaranteeing the staffing and resources required to deliver them safely.
- The number of people recalled to prison in England and Wales has doubled over the past decade to around 12,657, now accounting for nearly 15 per cent of the prison population.
- In the first quarter of 2025, only 23 per cent of recalls in 2025 involved further offending; most related to breaches of licence conditions, often for minor or technical reasons.
- Current recall processes contribute significantly to prison overcrowding while offering limited public protection benefits.
Lessons from international and domestic practice
The report draws on international evidence, including New York State’s Less is More Act, signed into law in 2021. These reforms limited the automatic use of prison for technical parole breaches, capped recall periods, and introduced earned time credits.
in May 2025, for example, the New York Police Department announced the seventh consecutive month of major crime decline. The report also highlights the success of problem-solving and whole-system approaches in England and Wales, including Greater Manchester’s model, which demonstrates how tailored, rehabilitative interventions can reduce reoffending and deliver better outcomes for communities.
Key recommendations
To ensure sentencing reform delivers lasting benefits, JUSTICE calls on the Ministry of Justice to publish and implement an evidence-based strategy to address probation staffing shortages and strengthen community supervision.
Key recommendations include:
- A fully resourced probation service
Sentencing reform must be matched with sufficient staffing at all levels and a focus on retaining experienced probation officers.
- A fairer recall system
JUSTICE proposes a two-stage recall model in which magistrates first determine whether a breach has occurred, before a parole tribunal considers whether recall to prison is necessary.
- Reducing unnecessary recalls
Ending the routine use of prison recall for minor or technical breaches of licence conditions.
- Improved preparation for release
Ensuring all prisoners have at least one face-to-face meeting with their probation officer before release, with licence conditions clearly explained to prevent unintentional breaches.
- Better support upon release
- The Ministry of Justice and the Probation Service should increase and improve the support for individuals leaving prison in respect to securing housing and accommodation, employment or education and training opportunities, financial support and accessing appropriate healthcare.
- Stronger sentencing decision-making
Improving the use and quality of pre-sentence reports so courts can have confidence in community sentences and make decisions informed by full analysis.
- Expanding problem-solving approaches
Scaling up rehabilitative, problem-solving models (particularly for women and young adults) that address housing, employment, health and family needs to reduce reoffending.