The government’s landmark Sentencing Bill reforms, aimed at solving the prisons crisis, will fail unless ministers urgently invest in the probation service, JUSTICE warns in a new report.  

The Bill, which is expected to become law early next year, will curtail the use of short-term prison sentences in a bid to ease overcrowding, leaving probation officers supervising thousands more offenders in the community.  

But the service remains overstretched after a decade of cuts, with a shortfall of around 10,000 staff. Probation officers are juggling unmanageable caseloads that undermine their ability to deliver rehabilitation and keep people out of prison.  

In a new report, JUSTICE warns that the Sentencing Bill could push the probation service to breaking point - failing to solve the prisons crisis and risking public safety.

Successive governments have already resorted to early release schemes to prevent the prison system’s total collapse, piling more pressure on the probation workforce.  

Ministers have recently boosted the number of probation officers by 7 per cent and pledged to increase funding by £700m by 2028 - but more immediate support is needed to reverse years of neglect.  

JUSTICE recommends the Ministry of Justice publishes and implements an evidence-based strategy to tackle the staffing shortfall, ensuring probation can deliver upcoming reforms.

Fiona Rutherford, Chief Executive of JUSTICE, said: “A decade of devastating cuts has left the probation service hanging by a thread - now it is being tasked with solving the prisons crisis. Thousands more offenders will soon need monitoring in the community, but staff are already buckling under the strain of unmanageable caseloads.

“The Sentencing Bill will be nothing but a short-term fix unless probation officers are given the support they need to break cycles of reoffending and keep people out of prison. This moment presents a rare opportunity for structural reform, backed by sufficient investment and a refocus on prevention, early intervention and holistic rehabilitation."

The Rt Hon Sir Robert Buckland KBE KC, former Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, said: "The probation service in England and Wales is in urgent need of improvement. As Lord Chancellor, I delivered major reforms in 2021, but further sustained investment is essential as demands on the service increase. 

“Overstretch and understaffing continue to challenge the system. Shifting away from custodial sentences will place even greater demands on the range and quality of community-based services. Ministers must address these issues thoughtfully and provide proper resources. If they fail to do so, the government risks trading one crisis for another, alleviating the pressure on prisons but pushing the probation service to breaking point." 

The report also calls for a fairer recall process, drawing on lessons from New York’s Less is More Act, signed into law by Governor Kathy Hochul in 2021.  

These reforms ended the automatic use of prison for certain technical breaches of parole, capped recall periods, and introduced earned time credits, helping New York close six state prisons while crime continued to fall.

JUSTICE recommends a two-stage recall model:

• The number of people recalled to prison in England and Wales has doubled in the past decade to 12,500 – nearly 15 per cent of the total prison population. It has been cited as one of the main causes of the capacity crisis. 

• But only 23% of recalls in the first three months of 2025 involved further offending. Most related to breaches of licences conditions, often for minor reasons, such as missing an appointment with a probation officer or homelessness.  

• Currently, probation officers make recall requests to the Public Protection Casework Section (PPCS), a body within the Prison and Probation Service. If the PPCS authorises the request, the offender can be returned to prison. 

• JUSTICE is proposing a two-stage model to reduce unnecessary recalls. Magistrates would first consider whether a breach has occurred, before a parole tribunal decides whether recall is necessary.

Other key recommendations in the report:  

• Prisoners should have at least one face-to-face meeting with their probation officer before release, at which their licence conditions can be explained thoroughly. This will help avoid unintentional breaches.

• Improved use and quality of pre-sentence reports, restoring confidence in community sentences and ensuring decisions are informed by full analysis.

• Expansion of problem-solving approaches, such as Greater Manchester’s model, which demonstrates how tailored, rehabilitative interventions, especially for women and young adults, reduce reoffending and deliver better outcomes for communities.

It should be noted that the success of these reforms depends on the probation service being fully staffed at all levels and retaining experienced officers.  

Kate Green, Deputy Mayor for Safer and Stronger Communities, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, said: “The criminal justice system faces considerable challenges, with prisons full to bursting and court backlogs reaching record highs. The government must be brave in taking steps that will ease pressure on overstretched probation staff, reduce crime and protect the public.

“There have been welcome signs, but more can be done to adopt solutions that have been shown to be effective, such as ending the use of prison recall for minor licence breaches.

“Whole system approaches that address offenders’ housing, employment, health, family and other needs are essential to reduce offending and reoffending. In Greater Manchester, we have already seen the success of this approach."

Read the report in full here.

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